In recent years, Daniel Ortega’s government has announced the signing of multiple multimillion-dollar loan agreements with China, complete with delegations traveling to Beijing for highly publicized signing ceremonies. However, newly updated figures from Nicaragua’s Central Bank (BCN) suggest that much of this has been rhetoric, with little tangible impact on the country’s economy.
As of the third quarter of last year, gross foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at $2.27 billion — about $10 million more than during the same period in 2024, when it totaled $2.26 billion.
In net terms, FDI through September 2025 reached $1.22 billion, surpassing the $1.03 billion recorded in the same period a year earlier.
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Central Bank statistics show that Nicaragua has posted strong FDI figures in recent years. Yet these inflows have not been driven by China, despite repeated claims by the governments of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo that Nicaragua has benefited more from its “friendship” with the Asian giant while distancing itself from the United States, its traditional economic and commercial ally for decades.
China: The Great Absentee
Of the $1.22 billion in net FDI recorded through September — the most recent data available — $165.7 million came from U.S. capital, making the United States the second-largest investor after Panama, which led with $320.9 million.
China, however, is conspicuously absent from the list. It does not appear among the 11 countries clearly identified as sources of foreign capital investing in Nicaragua’s economy, despite the political and institutional risks present in the country.
U.S. Investment Declines
That said, U.S. investment has been trending downward. The accumulated balance through September was below the $226.3 million recorded during the same period in 2024, implying a 26.78 percent contraction in 2025 compared with the previous year.
It remains unclear whether Chinese capital flows are so minimal that they have been grouped under “Other sources,” a category that totaled $237.1 million through September, up from $185.6 million in 2024.
In recent years, the government has announced a range of Chinese-backed projects, including retail stores, workshops, free trade zones, real estate developments, infrastructure, electricity generation, and mining initiatives.
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Panama at the Top
Official figures, however, do not list Beijing among the main investors. While specific projects remain undisclosed, Panama leads as the largest investor in Nicaragua, even surpassing the United States.
Between January and September of last year, Panamanian investment rose sharply from $262 million in the same period of 2024 — an increase of 22.52 percent in 2025.
Barbados ranks third, with $170 million in net FDI — an exponential increase compared with the $25.8 million recorded through September 2024. The Central Bank does not break down the type of investment by country, leaving the exact nature of these capital flows unclear.
The Netherlands and Colombia hold fourth and fifth place, with $85.1 million and $76.4 million, respectively. By the third quarter of last year, investment from both countries was on the rise. In 2024, those figures stood at $56.3 million for the Netherlands and $38.9 million for Colombia.
The Most Attractive Sectors
Of the total net investment reported through the period, the energy and mining sector attracted the largest share, with $438.4 million — well above the $174.5 million recorded in the comparable period.
Manufacturing also drew significant investment, with $330.1 million, slightly below the $364.2 million reported by the third quarter of 2024. The financial sector followed, receiving $310.5 million, up from $202 million the previous year.
Smaller amounts flowed into commerce and services, which captured $116.3 million — down from $155.6 million in 2024 — despite government claims of a boom in Chinese investment marked by the opening of Asian retail stores.
Capital is also being invested in communications and tourism, while fishing and agriculture have experienced capital withdrawals.
Asian Investors That Outpace China
Behind Colombia, Mexico ranks sixth, with $73.9 million in accumulated investment — up from $66.8 million in the same period of 2024.
Costa Rica is the seventh-largest investor, with $64.8 million through September, compared with $56.9 million in the previous year.
At the lower end of the ranking are South Korea, with $32.8 million — a sharp increase from $7.9 million in the comparable period — and Japan, with $19.8 million. These two countries are the only Asian nations, aside from China, investing in Nicaragua.
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Spain accounts for modest flows of $18.3 million.
Despite repeated official announcements touting growing ties with Beijing, the data show that China remains absent from Nicaragua’s principal foreign investors — overshadowed even by other Asian economies.
