It has been an independent nation since 1867, making it younger than most Latin American countries, yet it stands as the world’s tenth-largest economic power. It is a full democracy, undisputedly so.
Canada operates under a parliamentary government, with three main parties vying for control: the Liberals (LP), the Conservatives (CP), and the Social Democrats (NDP). This structure is modeled after the British system.
Liberal Justin Trudeau has served as Prime Minister since 2015. For the past four years, he has maintained a majority in Parliament through an alliance with the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh. However, the alliance appears to be fracturing. This has destabilized Trudeau, leading to missteps in both his domestic and international policies.
His conservative opponent, Pierre Poilièvre, seems likely to succeed him if elections were held soon. Last week, Patrick Mundler, a professor at Laval University, published a well-argued article in the Quebec newspaper Le Devoir titled “What Is Needed Is a Man of Strength,” seemingly justifying that Poilievre is the right candidate for the job.
Anything else that favors Pierre Poilièvre?
To the South, another conservative, Donald Trump, has set a precedent among the nearly 28 million Canadians who could go to the polls in 2025, if there is not an opposition vote of no confidence in the day.
Internally, Trudeau faces these problems: 1) a growing number of Liberal lawmakers (from his party) want him to call new elections and leave power; 2) it has already reached the maximum limit of its predecessors; 3) 41 per cent of Canadians feel they earn less money; 4) he has lost a lot of popularity (according to a poll, 57 percent want him to resign, only 34 percent support him); 5) the triumph of Trump has encouraged more far-right leaders to jump into the ring and win (Italy, Meloni; Holland, Wilders; Brazil – in 2019 – with Bolsonaro; Argentina, Milei).
Externally: NATO (financially and strategically managed by Washington) demands an increase in its membership quota to 2 percent, for the moment, Canada only allocates 1.34 percent of its budget. Canada’s role in NATO is being questioned in the media – The Globe and Mail columnist Roger Cyr emphasized, “Canada is a nation of butter, not weapons,” and that a simple bilateral military alliance with the U.S. would suffice. There are more very difficult topics… trade conflicts with China; bilateral problems with the United States.
Conservative nationalism is on the rise. There is growing fatigue with the welfare state, high taxes, and the uncontrolled admission of refugees, which is disrupting key systems such as public health and safety, housing, and education.
Justin Trudeau doesn’t want to appear unpopular. He made a YouTube video in which he admitted to having made a mistake by opening the doors for the massive intake of refugees.
With this, he aims to correct course and present himself as humble and reflective. However, the shadow of Donald Trump in the United States looms large, influencing the political atmosphere and adding pressure on Trudeau.
The young Justin Trudeau knows well that Trump-supporting Republicans do not view him favorably. On the other hand, a recent Angus Reid poll revealed that Canadians believe Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre would handle issues with the U.S. better than Trudeau (38% vs. 24%).
Let’s return to the issues with the US: 1) free trade; 2) borders (Washington complained that Canada is almost like the Mexican border – in 2024, some 200,000 illegals have entered the US; 3) a renegotiation of the tripartite free trade agreement would seek to leave Mexico out (AMLO played dirty by favoring China); 4) the divergence of focus on NATO and the membership fee still low; 5) the construction of an oil pipeline that would pass, in sections, through U.S. territory is also a thorny issue, which even Joe Biden did not even want to address.
There are up to 8 or 9 leaders, some parliamentarians, from his party who are waiting for the government to fall to run. Can they be reliable? Will the political betrayal that William Shakespeare always saw behind the scenes of power fit here?
How many are still loyal to Trudeau, if even with his Deputy Prime Minister Christya Freeland there are strong and obvious frictions?
Would an early election give greater stability and tranquility to this pacifist country?
Today Canada already seems to be facing problems that the world today has been passing from hand to hand. Canada seemed to be detached from the rest of the international community, as a nation that wintered with its own geography and very low-intensity political issues, few tensions, and soft voices that dialogue very politely in parliaments, newspapers, and the media.
If Poilievre is elected, Canadians will be able to feel that they have renewed the leadership the country needs. Yes, there will be changes. But very much in their style, they will occur without dramatic and intense social tears or divisions.
*This analysis was written for La Prensa by a Nicaraguan resident in Canada.