In 2025, the dictatorship will mark 18 years in power, making Daniel Ortega the second-longest-serving president in the Americas, behind his ally Ralph Gonsalves of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. After January 20, he will become the second oldest, following Lula, who is exactly 15 days older.
Beyond the anecdotal fact of age, the critical issue is the 18 years of Ortega and Murillo’s rule. They have held onto power first through fraud and repression, and, since 2018, through severe levels of violence and death.
Since 2018, the repression unleashed by the regime has forced over 10 percent of the population into exile. The regime has become an obstacle to the country’s development and even a threat to the region through alliances with extra regional authoritarian regimes, such as China, Russia, and Iran—the latter deemed by the United States as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. These alliances bring no real benefits.
Despite all of this, the Nicaraguan opposition still struggles to find a way to see even a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. After the April uprising was crushed—along with the hope of swiftly ending the dictatorship—the opposition that emerged from this movement placed its hopes on challenging the dictator for power in the 2021 elections. However, free elections were never part of Ortega and Murillo’s plans. They imprisoned the opposition leadership of the time for nearly two years before exiling them.
From exile, there has been little to no advancement. The struggle against the dictatorship is stalled, paralyzed, with divisions resurfacing in exile—divisions that many believed the “awakening” effect of the prison cells would have eliminated.
What Can Be Done to Revive This Struggle? There are steps that can be taken to advance the goal of toppling the dictatorship:
1.- Understand that this is a battle, not an electoral campaign.
If the opposition could shift this mindset, it could create an action plan that actually produces results. Stopping the approach of acting like a popularity contest for votes would change everything. First, it would put an end to the futile pursuit of “unity” among more than a hundred “organizations,” most of which consist of fewer than ten individuals without any real base. In this disorganized mix, a single person often has the power to veto any initiative. Second, it would end the tendency to perform for social media as if it were a catwalk. The work plan should be designed to deliver effective blows, not to bore and disappoint Nicaraguans with endless statements or meetings.
2.- A group with a single direction and purpose
Instead of Horizontal Leadership that Paralyzes in This Context, Success Will Come to the Opposition that Achieves Victories.In this regard, uncomfortable as it may be, it would be wise to borrow from the Sandinista Front’s strategy of the 1970s. What’s needed is a vanguard, not an assembly.
This group should focus on decisive actions with the sole purpose of destabilizing the dictatorship. Nothing more. It must concentrate on action without seeking anyone’s permission. Effective actions against the dictatorship create legitimacy, not the other way around. If the opposition waits to gain legitimacy—or popularity—before acting, it becomes paralyzed.
3.- Don’t rely solely on the United States
The appointment of Marco Rubio as U.S. Secretary of State guarantees that there will be someone in the American executive who understands the issues surrounding Nicaragua—as well as Cuba and Venezuela. However, it’s important to remember that Donald Trump is primarily an isolationist, holding the view that the United States is better off focusing inward, dedicating all its efforts and resources to its own advancement.
The last U.S. president to pay any serious attention to Latin America—or, even worse, to Central America—was George W. Bush, but Ronald Reagan remains irreplaceable. The Trump administration views the region mostly as a bridge and a generator of migrants. Changing this perspective will be an uphill battle, even with Rubio in the Department of State.
The opposition must highlight that Daniel Ortega is a problem for Costa Rica and Panama due to migration, and for the rest of the region due to its destabilizing effects. However, the opposition must go beyond the hemisphere and seek potential allies among European democracies and beyond. Ortega’s insistence on bringing authoritarian regimes into the hemisphere—regimes that view themselves as challengers to Western democracies in their effort to impose a “new world order”—will only create more problems. Ortega is the spearhead in this war, which is already a very real issue in other parts of the world.
4.- The dictatorship will not cede power through elections
It may have sounded plausible in 2019 and 2020, not because the opposition was naive, but because there needed to be a serious opportunity given to peaceful and civilized change. However, Ortega and Murillo demonstrated in 2021 that when faced with an electoral challenge, they respond with repression and violence. And if there was any remaining doubt, the elections in Venezuela have since confirmed that such regimes will not cede power through democratic means.
While widespread violence is neither desirable nor feasible, a certain degree of force will sadly be necessary to remove the dictatorship. In this, Humberto Ortega was right. Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, along with a small group of mafiosos, have seized power in Nicaragua. Removing this entrenched regime will require some degree of force. This does not necessarily mean bloodshed, though it cannot be ruled out; it will, however, require much stronger actions than sanctions alone.
5.- A plan is necessary
The plan can be adjusted along the way, but allies must know exactly what they’re getting into and what to expect. At present, the opposition seems to do everything except act against the dictatorship. What is needed is action.
The diverse opposition has spent years trying to unite, only to end up in one failure after another. The words have run out: unity, alliance, coalition, confederation, space, concertation, and many more. It’s clear that this approach is not the way forward.
The author is a journalist.