It is clear that a lack of proposals and blueprints will not be what holds back a democratic transition in Nicaragua.
In truth, one does not need a bachelor’s degree or a doctorate in political science, nor extensive political experience, to recognize that the transition from dictatorship to democracy is inevitable.
To be sure, transitions sometimes lead from one dictatorship to another. That was the case in Nicaragua in 1979, when the Somoza dictatorship was replaced by the Sandinista regime. But that is clearly not what would happen today. Ultimately, no matter how long an authoritarian regime lasts, it is bound to be replaced by a new government—one that is typically democratic.
Therefore, regardless of how hard Nicaragua’s co-dictators and their henchmen try to cling to power indefinitely, prolonging their rule through a combination of brutal repression and constitutional and legal maneuvering, they will eventually have to leave, whether by hook or by crook. It is merely a matter of time.
Those engaged in politics —whether anti-dictatorship activists or independent, pro-democracy analysts— know this all too well. Some political pundits even predict how the Sandinista dictatorship will fall: through implosion (collapsing under the weight of its own internal contradictions); through international political and economic pressure, particularly from the U.S. government and its regional allies; through a targeted extraction operation, similar to the one that ousted Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in January of this year; or through negotiations between regime representatives, the U.S., and the Nicaraguan opposition, forced by external pressure and escalating domestic crises.
However the dictatorship ends, the need for a practical transition plan is self-evident. Exiled opposition groups are already proposing these frameworks.
So far, the primary transitional proposal presented publicly is titled «Nicaragua: An Ordered Transition from Dictatorship to Democracy,» backed by a dozen exiled political parties and movements that identify as center-right.
Additionally, the Dialogue and Confluence Space of Nicaraguan Actors —a coalition that does not explicitly declare an ideological affiliation but is widely viewed as left— presented its own transition plan, titled «Essential Foundations for the Refounding of the Nation-State: Building a New Social and Political Accord for Nicaragua.»
Prior to these initiatives, a group of 27 former political prisoners, activists, and attorneys released a «12-Point Special Plan.» Like the other proposals, it outlines key legal reforms required to dismantle the dictatorship’s repressive apparatus and drive peaceful change.
There are likely other democratic transition proposals —or more to come— given that exiled Nicaraguan dissidents remain fragmented across various groups and platforms. Yet almost all of them share the same core objective: restoring and rebuilding democracy.
In truth, these initiatives could merge into a single unified transition plan if coalition leaders set aside their party lines. Unifying these proposals would yield a single roadmap for democratic transition, or at least consolidate them into two primary options, center-right and democratic left. This would streamline decision-making when the moment arrives to drive real change: at «the hour of the furnaces,» as José Martí put it, when the time comes to move from words and plans to transformative action.
